What Are the Vegas Odds of a Filipino Pope? The Betting Market Has Weighed in. The Numbers Might Surprise You.

When news broke of Pope Francis’s passing on April 21, 2025, global conversations quickly shifted to one major question: Who’s next?

And if you’ve been anywhere near the internet, or TikTok’s CatholicTok, for that matter, you’ve probably heard one name rising above the whispers: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.

He’s not just a contender. According to Vegas oddsmakers, Tagle is THE frontrunner.

Right now as of the publishing of this blog on April 22, 2025.,, he’s topping multiple betting charts. Here’s what the latest odds are saying:

• William Hill: 7/4 odds (around 36.4% chance) — tied with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin

• Polymarket: Trading at 26 cents, which suggests a 26% probability

• Kalshi: Trading at 22 cents, or 22% likelihood

• OddsChecker: Listed at +300, which equals a 25% chance

By comparison, Parolin, his biggest rival, is hovering on average 34 percent across the same platforms. So yeah, Tagle is right there.

So who is Cardinal Tagle, and why is he suddenly the people’s pick?

Born in Manila in 1957, Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle grew up in a deeply Catholic household in Cavite. His mother was of Chinese descent, giving him the kind of multicultural roots that resonate with the Church’s increasingly global flock. He was ordained as a priest in 1982 and has quietly risen through the Vatican ranks. In 2012, Pope Benedict XVI named him cardinal. By 2019, Pope Francis tapped him to lead the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, one of the most powerful departments in the Vatican. The role placed him at the center of the Church’s future in Asia and beyond.

Tagle is often referred to as “The Asian Francis,” not just for his people-first approach, but for his commitment to inclusion, social justice, and humility. He’s the kind of spiritual leader who weeps at the pulpit and actually means it. Gen Z and millennial Catholics have even created a niche internet fandom around him. There are memes. There’s CatholicTok fan edits. There’s genuine respect.

But it’s not just about his vibe. It’s about timing.

The Catholic Church is facing a demographic pivot. Membership is declining in Europe while Asia, Africa, and Latin America are growing fast. Over 130 million Catholics live in Asia today, and the Philippines remains the third-largest Catholic country in the world. Choosing a Filipino pope wouldn’t just be symbolic. It would be strategic, powerful, and future-facing.

Of course, Vatican decisions don’t come down to fan favorites or betting slips. The conclave is confidential. The politics are complicated. And Tagle, while beloved, has critics among more conservative members of the Church’s leadership. But the fact that he's polling this high across so many betting platforms is more than a fluke. It's a reflection of shifting global consciousness, inside and outside the Church.

For Filipinos everywhere, this moment hits deep. It’s not just about religion. It’s about identity. It’s about seeing someone who understands your language, your culture, your worldview step into a position no Asian has ever held. It’s about making space at the most sacred table in the world.

Even if Tagle doesn’t become pope, the fact that he’s being considered this seriously, and is the frontrunner on actual betting books—speaks volumes. It tells a story of where the Church might be headed, and who it sees when it looks toward the future.

Tagle 2025? We’re not just praying. We’re betting on it.

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